With the right wing Reform UK party rising in the polls, what could a future Reform government mean for Anglo-Irish relations?
Brexit has been called the lowest point in Anglo-Irish relations since the conclusion of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Perhaps, however, the worst may be yet to come due to the possibility of a future Reform government. While current relations between Westminster and Leinster House have been described as a positive ‘reset’ and the controversial Legacy Act has been reworked, the current Labour government’s rule rests on shaky foundations.
According to some polls, PM Keir Starmer has the lowest popularity ratings for a PM on record in modern British history. He has faced numerous party revolts who disagree with the direction he has moved the party in the last 15 months, and faces growing opposition from both left and right parties. The biggest threat being, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Despite having emerged initially as the fringe Brexit Party, Reform UK has jumped in popularity over the last year. Now, topping the polls in the 30-35% range, they lead Labour by more than 10 points. This is compounded by the nature of the British electoral system and how Labour secured its overwhelming 411 seat majority. First past the post, unlike proportional representation as used in Ireland and other European countries can allow small proportions of the electorate to dominate. Labour won two-thirds of the seats in 2024 with only a third of the votes. Reform UK is set to do the same.
Farage’s manifesto outlines a far right anti-immigrant vision of Britain. He claims that he will deport hundreds of thousands of immigrants over a government term. He has vowed to abolish the rights of migrants to qualify for permanent settlement, also known as indefinite leave to remain (ILR). ILR gives immigrants the right to live and work in the UK without time limits, and is a pathway to citizenship. Farage would replace the ILR with a visa-based system which would allow him to deport people who have lived and worked in the UK for years.
The European Convention on Human Rights could prevent some of these deportation policies. Despite the fact that the ECHR is the legal basis of the Good Friday Agreement, Farage promises to leave it.
It is unclear how many people are on indefinite leave to remain in Northern Ireland. Generally speaking, Northern Ireland has lower rates of immigration compared to the rest of the UK. The BBC reported that immigration had reached a 15 year high in 2023, with a net gain of 7,500. In 2022 there was a net gain of 5,000 immigrants from outside the EU and UK. In 2024 there were at least 2,248 asylum seekers in Northern Ireland.
How an Irish government would be forced to react to mass deportations is unclear. While reactions to Trump’s America have been often restrained due to our trade relationship, these deportations would be happening on this island. They may be happening to the friends and family members of Irish citizens. By leaving the ECHR, these deportations may not violate British law, but these deportations would still violate Irish law. The government would face huge pressure to act, especially considering that Sinn Féin holds 39 of the seats in the Dáil. As a vocal opposition, and reunification being their main historic drive, this would be a core cause for the party. With both the UK and Irish general elections set for 2029, a vocal Sinn Féin in the lead up to an election may force the government to take a harsher stance as to not lose ground to the opposition.
Just weeks ago, promoting his autobiography, former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar described a Reform win as a potential path to Irish reunification. However, while not active, paramilitary groups have not entirely disappeared from Northern Ireland. In 2020, there were an estimated 12,500 remaining members of Loyalist paramilitary groups. This was according to a leaked British government assessment gained by the BBC. This same assessment alleges that the IRA still exists on some level. Sinn Féin has rejected this claim.
The Northern Ireland peace process proves that mutual cooperation, power sharing, and the inclusion of conflict groups reduces the likelihood of violence recurring. But whether or not a Reform led UK government, Northern Ireland, and the Republic would be able to cooperate remains an open question.