After a tumultuous two weeks, it seems as if for Ukraine, the future relies on Europe. Oisín Gaffey discusses
The ‘ReArm Europe’ €800bn Defence package was unveiled by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday 4 March, marking a historic moment for the 27-member bloc in the wake of a tumultuous two weeks across the Atlantic.
On Friday 28 February, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky held a now-infamous press conference in the White House, which resulted in the Ukrainian premier departing the Oval Office much earlier than anticipated, with a controversial minerals deal, and the future of the country’s war efforts, in tatters.
The bust-up was unlike anything seen in Western democracy in quite some time, and sent alarm bells ringing across the world, most significantly across Europe. That weekend, Zelensky then met with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and other European leaders at a European summit in London, in a scrambling effort to sure-up Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
In light of the disastrous meeting in Washington, The United States announced that it would pause all military aid and military intelligence sharing to Ukraine, sending shivers down the spine of those in the European Union bloc, whilst European defence stocks began to boom.
Whilst the US has agreed to resume military aid and military intelligence sharing with Ukraine following successful talks in Riyadh on Tuesday 11 March, it is clear that the US has shown itself to be an unreliable ally for the war-torn country, willing to flip-flop policy based on the mood and ego of their democratically elected man-baby, Donald Trump.
Von der Leyen’s ‘ReArm Europe’ package is a clear signal that the bloc understands the importance of increasing their own defence spending, as the US moves to a more isolationist approach, having already cut thousands of its USAID projects thanks to the work of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. This new package is proof for Ukraine that, “The Future Is Europe”, or at least, it will have to be.
But is Europe ready for what’s to come? The United States has been the single biggest ally to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, and without military aid or intelligence sharing, Ukraine faces a daunting future, despite Europe’s increase in Defence spending. The biggest difficulty facing the bloc is timing; whilst an increase in spending is welcomed by Ukraine, it is unclear how quickly Europe can move to bolster their ally, meanwhile Russia will look at the previous few weeks with hope that they can take advantage of the situation.
News out of Riyadh seems to imply a slight change of the US attitude towards peace; seemingly changing their approach of applying pressure on Ukraine for a ceasefire to applying pressure on Russia for peace, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating on Tuesday evening, “The ball is in their (Russia’s) court.” It remains to be seen just what this ‘pressure’ on Russia looks like, with no deadline given to the state to accept the proposed temporary ceasefire. Donald Trump at least has shown no signs of placing any real pressure on Russia to end their war efforts, but the latest deal out of Riyadh might have done that for him, unbeknownst to the US Premier.
The resumption of military aid and intelligence spending is a welcome sign, but speaks to a United States that can’t be fully trusted as an ongoing ally, although it’s worth stating that the European Commission have insisted that the US remains an ally, stating it is, “not up to us to comment on decisions or announcements that are made on the other side of the Atlantic.”
The US’ controversial, greedy minerals deal, which seemingly only benefits the US, is a clear sign of self-interest. The US seems to be applying a “What’s in it for us?” approach under Trump 2.0, paving the way for Europe to take the lead in the future for the safety and sovereignty of Ukraine. Whether or not Europe is ready and able to take the lead in more ways than in ideology remains to be seen but the increase in defence spending across the bloc speaks to a Europe that is very concerned with the latest developments, and has shown serious intent to take up the mantle in defending Ukraine.
What does the ‘ReArm Europe’ package mean for Ireland, though? Ireland’s EU Commissioner Michael McGrath states in an interview with the Irish Times last Friday, “The prospect of Russian tanks rolling into an EU member state is no longer unthinkable.” McGrath highlighted the need for Europe to be able to defend itself as the United States retreats into an isolationist outlook. He continued,
“The world has changed in the last number of weeks and we have to face up to the reality that Europe has to stand on its own two feet.”
Irish Tánaiste Simon Harris has called for the annual defence budget to be increased from €1.5bn to €3bn and has said he is “convinced of the need to acquire combat jet aircraft to ‘deter and detect’ airborne threats” with the proposal of basing combat jets at Shannon airport for an annual cost of €100m. Much like the bloc of which they are a member of, Ireland are placing a higher emphasis on Defence spending in the wake of the US’ sliding position on military aid for Ukraine.
Furthermore, the Irish Government cabinet signed off on a bill to dismantle the ‘Triple Lock’ for Irish military involvement in operations abroad, as of Tuesday 4 March. The three steps of the ‘Triple Lock’ are currently Cabinet approval, Dáil approval, and approval from the United Nations Security Council. It is this third need for approval which the Government is seeking to scrap, seemingly in an effort to limit the Security Council, which includes Russia, from being able to veto Irish involvement overseas. Simon Harris commented, “We are living in a new era in Europe, in which Ireland also faces significant new security and defence challenges, and we must consider how best to respond.”
It has become increasingly clear that the European Union and its member states no longer see the United States as a reliable, consistent ally, particularly on the issue of Ukraine, and not to mention a proposed tariff trade war. The United States’ recession into an isolationist approach is music to Moscow’s ears, and is ringing alarm bells across the EU, forcing the bloc to increase defence spending and to be prepared to ‘go it alone’ without the backing of the US. Whilst news coming out of talks in Riyadh are promising, the EU can no longer comfortably rely on the US like it has been able to.
Allegedly, Mr Zelensky might be invited back to the White House following these recent developments. Whilst he undoubtedly needs Mr Trump’s support, military aid and financial assistance, it is becoming increasingly clear that for Ukraine, the future is Europe.