By any legitimate standard, the United States-Israel war against Iran has been nothing less than a disastrous entanglement.
By any legitimate standard, the United States-Israel war against Iran has been nothing less than a disastrous entanglement. What was initially billed as a short strike campaign has since evolved into a weeks-long war embroiling several regional actors, with all indications that it might take several more weeks or months to end. While official American objectives of the war have changed frequently and inconsistently since the start, the results speak for themselves: hundreds of civilian and combatant deaths, damning cracks in long-standing global alliances, and the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Since Iran enforced a closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28th, roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquified gas supply has virtually stopped flowing, pushing the world towards economic fallout. While a two-week ceasefire has been arranged, the future of the Strait remains fluid. Countries around the world have since reassessed their current position, Ireland being no exception.
On March 24th, the Irish government announced a package of temporary measures to address rising fuel prices, targeting all areas of the economy affected by fuel price variability. Rates for the Mineral Oil Tax have been temporarily reduced: 15 cents per litre for petrol, 20 cents per litre for auto diesel, and 3 cents per litre for marked gas oil. For haulage and bus operators, the government has increased the maximum allowable repayment under the Diesel Rebate Scheme from 7.5 cents to 12 cents per litre of diesel. For vulnerable households, the fuel allowance season has been extended by four weeks, meaning that the 470,000 households that benefit from the fuel allowance will receive an additional €152, or €38 per week. The NORA levy, previously set at 2 cents per litre, has been cut for a period of two months. Collectively, these measures are set to cost €250 million.
While this package is set for implementation only through the immediate months of May and June, the official government notice reserves the option to adjust as domestic and global circumstances evolve. And adjustment will undoubtedly be at hand if the war continues—on April 4th, just days after the initial package of measures was implemented, the Irish Road Haulage Association reported that fuel had continued to rise by 35%. Tánaiste Simon Harris provided the following: "We will navigate this period of volatility. But, to put it bluntly, nobody knows what the situation will be in a month from now; we must remain flexible in our response.”
History of Shortages
The last time Ireland experienced the effects of a global fuel crisis was approximately half a century ago, during the lasting effects of the 1973 and 1979 oil crises. Some among the public might recall kilometres-long fuel station queues. The 1973 crisis was the direct result of the oil embargo imposed by the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) on Israel-supporting nations during the Yom Kippur War, and 1979 was the result of regional instability during and immediately following the Iranian Revolution. During the former, average market prices rose from $3 per barrel in September to $11 by December; for the latter, another significant price hike, from $15 to roughly $40 per barrel. Market fears, significant societal overreliance, and speculative hoarding around the world greatly exacerbated the effects of the initial supply disruptions; what followed the 1970s was a decade marked by inflation and global recession periods.
Preparations to Take
Since the period of instability, Ireland has made great achievements in energy security and diversification; these recent weeks perhaps stand as a testament to that fact. Ireland has also done well by greatly reducing its dependence on the motor industry in the past five decades. That said, the public should remain prepared for potential changes to the situation, as the next few months could very well be unprecedented. Below are some relevant fuel crisis policies which you should be aware of if the current course of global affairs continues:
Lower motorway speeds: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has suggested that countries instruct citizens to drive at lower speeds—approximately 10 km/h less— to save fuel. This suggestion has also been promoted by the European Union (EU). This policy has recently been relevant in Irish discourse on energy security.
Remote work: The IEA and the EU have also suggested that countries promote remote work for all citizens who can. This would greatly save fuel previously spent on commuting. If this sees widespread implementation, students of this generation ought to be well and comfortable taking classes online.
Shared transit: As is obvious, shared forms of transportation greatly save on fuel. This does not stop at the bus, train, or Luas—if conditions greatly worsen, the public might also be asked to carpool with colleagues whenever possible to further save fuel.
Fuel Rationing: While this strategy has not taken hold in Irish discourse, many countries around the world have already started developing plans to limit how much fuel can be purchased by motorists at one time. For example, the United Kingdom is currently considering a £30 limit for purchasing fuel.
At-Home Practices: In times of shortage, citizens might be expected to do their best to save on gas usage in the home. This might be using electric or slow cooking methods instead of gas, limiting light usage after dark, amongst other small changes.
Staying Aware: As these past weeks have displayed, significant developments arrive swiftly. All members of the public should be diligent in their duty to be updated on national crisis policy.