The University Observer's election poll data indicates clear frontrunners amongst all races, excluding that of the Graduate race.
A poll conducted by the University Observer indicates that Enzo Crothers is the first preference presidential candidate amongst students surveyed, in the lead up to the UCDSU Executive Elections. Jessica Klein received the greatest first preference vote across all races, receiving 92.1% of first preference votes in the Education race. The race for Graduate Officer is the most competitive race, with 55.6% of students placing Niamh Andrews Fraher as their first preference, and 36.1% of students voting Anshuka Baisoya as their first preference.
This analysis is based on a voluntary poll conducted by The University Observer and reflects the views of 165 respondents - out of an overall student body of over 38,000 students. While the results provide insight into trends among those surveyed, the sample represents only a small proportion of the overall UCD student body. As such, the findings should not be interpreted as representative of the wider student population, nor as a prediction of the final election outcome.
The University Observer’s election poll was conducted between the period of Monday 23rd of February and Saturday 28th of February.
President Race
Enzo Crothers is running uncontested to be the next President of UCDSU. Crothers received 133 total first preference votes from students surveyed in the University Observer election poll, meaning that 81.9% of students surveyed voted Crothers as their first preference. Support for Crothers was highest amongst older student cohorts, with the greatest majority of first preference voters belonging to Stage 4 (28.6%) and Stage 3 (22.6%).
Re-Open Nominations (RON) received 25 first preference votes (18.1%), the highest number of RON votes across all races.
Education Race
Jessica Klein is running uncontested to be the next Education Officer of UCDSU. Klein received 139 total first preference votes across students surveyed, therefore 92.1% of those who voted indicated that they plan to vote for Klein as their first preference. This is the highest percentage of first preference votes received by any candidate across all races. RON received 12 first preference votes (7.9%).
Welfare Race
Éabha Hughes received the greatest number of first preference votes in the race to be UCDSU’s next Welfare Officer, with 116 of students surveyed (73.9%) voting her as their first preference choice. Nidhi Hiranwar received the second highest percentage of first preference votes, with 21 students (13.4%) indicating that they plan to vote for Hiranwar as their first preference. Sneha Choudhary received 10 first preference votes amongst students surveyed (6.4%). 10 students indicated that they plan to vote for RON as their first preference (6.4%).
Hughes had the greatest representation amongst students in their later years of study, receiving first preference votes from Stage 3 (29.8%), Stage 4 (27.2%), and Stage 2 (21.9%) students overwhelmingly. Hiranwar received the greatest percentage of first preference votes from Stage 1 (33.3%) and Masters (23.8%) students, with Choudhary’s voter demographics following similar patterns of Stage 1 (40.0%) and Masters (30.0%) students.
Graduate Race
The race for the role of Graduate Officer is the most competitive multi-candidate race. 80 students surveyed (55.6%) indicated that Niamh Andrews Fraher is their first preference, whilst 52 students (36.1%) indicated that Anushka Baisoya is their first preference. RON received 12 votes in this race, meaning 8.3% of votes cast were to re-open nominations.
Campaigns & Engagement Race
In the race for the position of Campaigns and Engagement Officer, Tom Conway received 125 first preference votes (81.2%) amongst students surveyed. Chesi Anne Basil received 18 first preference votes (11.7%), whilst RON received 11 first preference votes (7.1%).
In terms of voter demographics, the largest proportion of Conway’s voters indicated that they were in their later years of study, with Stage 4 (30.3%) and Stage 3 (23.8%) students forming his largest voter bases. Basil’s greatest first preference voter base is Stage 3 (27.8%) and Masters (27.8%) students.
Entertainment Race
Amongst the three candidates contesting for the role of Entertainment Officer, students surveyed indicated an overall preference for Patrick Henriquez Bruce, who received 118 (76.1%) of first preference votes. Shreyansh Jagtap, current UCDSU Graduate Officer, received 16 first preference votes (10.3%). Chetan Khanna received 12 first preference votes (7.7%), with RON receiving 9 first preference votes (5.8%).
Henriquez Bruce’s voter demographics were largely made up of Stage 4 (31.9%) and Stage 3 (25.0%) students. Japtap’s voters were largely Stage 3 (43.8%) or Masters (18.8%) students, whilst Khanna’s voter base indicated that they are Masters (25.0%) and Stage 2 (25.0%) students.
Analysis
Support for the frontrunners in all races is heavily concentrated amongst Stage 3 and Stage 4 students. However, this is likely tied to the data collected by respondents - 25.8% of respondents are in Stage 4, 25.2% respondents are in Stage 3, 17.8% of respondents are in Stage 2, 17.8% of respondents are in Stage 1, and 11% of respondents are Masters students. A further 0.6% of respondents indicated that they are in Stage 5 of their degree, and 1.8% of respondents indicated that they are currently studying in UCD as part of an exchange programme.
Most races show a largely even gender split, with 48.2% of respondents indicating that they identify as female, 46.3% identifying as male, and 3.7% identifying as non-binary.
The majority of respondents to the University Observer election poll were from the faculties of Arts & Humanities (40%) and Law & Social Sciences (35.2%). Engineering & Architecture students were the third-most represented at 8.5%, with Science following at 7.9%. The faculties of Business and Health & Agricultural Sciences had the lowest level of engagement in the poll - 4.2% of students indicated that they study Business, and 4.2% indicated that they study Health & Agricultural Sciences.
73.9% of students surveyed indicated that they have previously voted in a UCDSU election before, with 24.2% indicating that this is their first time voting. For the leading candidates across all races, a strong majority (72%–82%) of their first preference voters have previously voted in a UCDSU election, suggesting these candidates are reaching students who are already politically active within UCD. Interestingly, those voting for RON (especially in the Education and ENTS races) have the highest previous voting rates (91.7% and 100%).
Regarding previous Union involvement, 69.1% of students surveyed indicated that they have no previous Union involvement, whilst 25.5% of students surveyed indicated that they had. Shreyansh Jagtap (Entertainment) and Éabha Hughes (Welfare) have the highest density of "Union-involved" supporters (50% and 30.2% respectively), indicating strong support within those active in UCDSU. This aligns with Jagtap’s current role as Graduate Officer within the Union, as well as Hughes’ role as Stage 4 History Class Representative and strong history in student activism, particularly UCD BDS. Sneha Choudhary and Nidhi Hiranwar have the highest percentages of supporters who have never voted in an SU election before (70% and 45% respectively).
The demographic percentages are derived from a sample of 165 respondents. In categories where a candidate received a low number of first-preference votes, the demographic breakdown may be skewed by a small number of individual responses. Alongside this, as a voluntary survey, the results may over-represent students who are more engaged with student politics, student media, and UCDSU - and under-represent more casual voters.
Alongside this, this election poll should only be taken as a representation of the views only of those who chose to participate. While it may indicate voter sentiment amongst those who volunteered to participate, it should not be considered a definitive prediction of the final election results.
Voting for the UCDSU exectutive elections will open tomorrow, Tuesday 3rd March, and will close at 8pm on Thursday 5th March. Voting will take place online via the Mi-Voice platform. All students will receive an email with a direct link to the ballots they are eligible to vote on shortly before polling opens.
Results will be announced in the Atrium, UCD Student Centre, at 3pm on Friday, 6th March.