Reporter Cian McCrory details the increasing complexity of the Ukraine War and the fears of waning support and aid under a Trump administration
On November 6, the Russian parliament ratified a mutual defence agreement, the Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships, which establishes a mutual defence arrangement between Russia and North Korea.
This has followed a Reuters report on November 4 of a military engagement between a detachment of North Korean troops and the Ukrainian military for the first time in the Kursk oblast of Russia. It is estimated that up to 11,000 North Koreans have been deployed in the region on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border, along with 500 commanding officers and 3 generals of the North Korean army.
Whether North Korea has fully committed to the conflict as a Russian ally has not been confirmed, as South Korea has stated that they don’t believe this was an engagement in direct combat, but rather involvement in a separate smaller incident. There has been no response from Moscow and Pyongyang so far.
As a result of this incident, Beijing has stated its concerns about the instability which has ensued, especially within the Korean Peninsula. The ratification of the mutual defence treaty has also exacerbated Beijing’s concerns that North Korea is attempting to move away from its military and political reliance on China, and is instead moving it towards Russia.
Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy has called the development a “new page in instability in the world”, white NATO member states have expressed their worry about the ensuing threat.
The re-election of Donald Trump in the United States on November 6 has exacerbated fears of a United States that is more withdrawn from its policing role in international security. While Trump has previously expressed his support for Ukraine following the invasion in February 2022, during his 2024 election campaign, he stated that early into his presidency he wished to end the conflict as soon as possible and to cut aid to Ukraine because of what he viewed as constant requests for funding in the form of aid from the United States. As a response, Kyiv has stated they will begin to look for allies in other places of the West.
The fate of Ukraine in the future is uncertain as many are sceptical about Trump’s strategy on Ukraine and Kyiv’s changing position on the election of Donald Trump.