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The upcoming US election is an easy thing to dismiss in Ireland, being thought of as more of a spectacle to watch and follow in the media. However, no matter who wins, there will be an impact as Ireland and the United States have a close relationship.
This election will have serious implications for Ireland’s economy, employment, and global relations. With nearly €1 trillion in trade and investment relations between the two countries, Ireland has more at risk than most realise.
Tourism and Travel
Regarding tourism in Ireland, the election has close to no effect on the industry, even reporting spikes the year following an election. Visa and travel regulations are important for tourism, especially for families and young people who wish to travel on a J1. Kamala Harris is likely to maintain or even expand visa waiver programs and custom pre-clearance arrangements, which help smooth travel between the US and Ireland at airports. In contrast, Donald Trump has previously implemented more restrictive travel policies, and a similar policy could potentially affect travel abroad.
Economic Relations and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
US foreign direct investments are the foundation of Ireland’s relationship with the US, as Ireland has become a crucial link for American businesses looking for access to Europe. With €491 billion in FDI, US companies significantly contribute to the Irish economy and employ at least 7% of the Irish workforce. A stable environment is crucial to preserving this link, but key policies from either candidate may change this.
Harris’ approach suggests that her policies will support global trade relations and labour-friendly policies that will maintain the current relationship, potentially benefiting Ireland's tech and pharmaceutical sectors. Trump’s “America First” policies, however, could change this relationship. His proposed tariffs are as high as 200% on foreign car imports, as well as additional tariffs of 10 - 20% on goods from various countries, including Ireland. These tariffs on imported goods would raise the cost of goods for American consumers but also place enormous pressure on Irish exporters.
Corporate Tax Policy
Ireland’s corporate tax rate has influenced many of the largest US tech and pharmaceutical companies to set up a presence in Ireland. However, Trump’s criticisms of Ireland’s tax policies, as well as his pledge to lower domestic corporate taxes to 15%, could influence US corporations to return to the US. Trump has complained about the EU courts ruling on American tech companies, particularly the ruling forcing Apple to pay €13 billion in unpaid taxes to Ireland, and claims he will
reverse this decision if elected. US tech firms contributed €24 billion in corporation tax revenue the government took in last year. A shift could cost Ireland billions of euro in corporate tax revenue if US companies pull back and leave Ireland. Harris is likely to support international tech jobs and more labour-friendly policies, which may keep US and Ireland tech relations stable. Her approach may appeal to tech companies that rely on Ireland’s labour force and its connection to the EU. By avoiding tax shifts, her policies could affect both FDI flow and Ireland's status as a tech hub might be maintained under her policies.
Impact on Employment
The election will also impact Ireland’s workforce due to visa and employment issues. US employers, especially in tech, rely on Ireland’s workforce as a link to Europe. Harris is supporting a global trade alliance that could benefit sectors like pharmaceuticals and medical devices. By promoting stable trade relations, a Harris administration might help the thousands of Irish jobs relating to exports. Trump’s policies focus on job creation internally in the US, which could challenge employment and job growth in Ireland as US companies start prioritising hiring within the US, reducing Ireland’s opportunities for international employment.
Security Concerns and the Northern Ireland Protocol
Ireland’s national security remains sensitive to US policies, especially regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. This agreement, which helped post-Brexit relations between Northern Ireland and Ireland, could be threatened if the US advocates for change. Harris is likely to support the Good Friday Agreement, following Biden in voicing support for the Good Friday Agreement and cautioning the UK against a hard border in the North. Trump has shown a desire to destabilise this Protocol, even suggesting a hard border during talks with former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. His distaste for NATO, coupled with his repeated threats to revoke US assistance, might jeopardise regional security and have an indirect effect on Ireland.
Middle East Policy
US foreign policy in the Middle East is another area where candidates differ, with implications for Ireland’s diplomatic stance. Ireland has shown strong support for Palestine, creating tensions with Trump’s strong support of Israel. His support for Israeli actions in Gaza, along with his recognition of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, will certainly strain the Irish public’s perception of US-Ireland relations. Trump has reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” and his State Department has declared that the US would no longer consider settlements in the West Bank to be illegal. Although Harris often repeats her desire “to end the war in Gaza”, she is staying aligned with Biden’s administration policy and has reaffirmed her commitment to “Israel’s right to defend itself.” Harris could help with a diplomatic environment that is more in line with Ireland’s approach to human rights.
As Ireland watches the US election, it’s clear that the policies of the next government administration will be crucial for Irish job security, economic relations, and the future of Ireland’s businesses. This election is a crucial moment with significant stakes for Ireland's future security and development since it will influence not only US-Ireland ties but also Ireland's larger position in the global economy. Minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill has stated: “We will watch the outcome very carefully for its impact on tax and trade…there’s a lot at stake, and it’s important”.