With climate change set to heavily impact the global food system, Thomas Walsh examines how Ireland’s agricultural and food systems are positioned to respond to and adapt.
Chocolate and olive oil are among the sweet things in life that have suffered price spikes in the last year due to climatic factors. With climate change set to heavily impact the global food system, economic competitiveness in food markets may soon depend on adopting the most sustainable practices possible. So, how is Ireland positioned?
Ireland’s agricultural model is based on exporting expensive products while importing cheaper goods. As the Global North gets wealthier, its appetite for meat increases. Global meat consumption per capita has increased from 23 kg per person in the 1960s to about 43 kg today. As meat substitutes and plant-based diets fail to experience any rapid uptake, carnism looks like it’s here to stay, for the meantime.
It comes as no surprise that Ireland remains a producer and exporter of beef. However, beef produces far more emissions per unit of protein than chicken, nuts, or pulses. What you eat remains more important than eating locally - transport emissions only account for about 5% of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector.
The UCD Earth Institute has noted that while the carbon intensity of Irish beef & dairy was improving between 2010 and 2015, progress has stalled since 2015. According to the 2023 Fixing Food Together report, almost half of Ireland’s emissions come from animal products. In 2022, the World Resource Institute compared the carbon emissions from milk produced in various countries. Irish milk is lower in emissions than Brazil, but Denmark and Sweden are the clear winners. In fact, Ireland came 9th out of 13 studied countries in terms of lifecycle emissions from milk production.
An 18% reduction in Irish agricultural emissions is possible by 2030, according to the EPA. Some of the more unsettling measures to get there include reducing the age of slaughter for beef cattle, meaning that less methane is emitted over the lifetime of the animal in order to produce a specific amount of food. Food additives to cattle feed, such as seaweed, can also reduce methane emissions, but implementing this measure would be easier in countries where farming is typically housed and feeding is centralised. In Ireland, a more feasible strategy could involve adding clover to grass swards to reduce emissions by naturally fixing nitrogen in the soil and lowering the need for synthetic fertilizers. This would provide a more nutritious feed for cattle, reducing methane output per kilogram of beef produced.
Ireland ranks 2nd on the Global Food Security Index. It scores 4th for affordability, 15th for availability, and 3rd for sustainability and adaptation, despite poor performance on emissions from peatland drainage, and water pollution. The primary risk to Ireland lies in overseas food scarcities. According to the UCD Institute of Food and Health, only about 29% of food imports could be grown domestically, such as potatoes and apples, but the majority, including pineapples and coffee, could not. Positive trends in global food security throughout the 2010s have recently reversed, which is bad news for food availability and prices in an import-dependent economy like Ireland. In 2021, 22% of fruit and vegetable imports came from countries classified as climate-vulnerable. Production of crops ranging from oranges to rice and soybeans have recently seen decreases due to changing weather patterns.
While Ireland’s domestic food system will not be the most severely impacted by climate change, it is not immune. The EPA highlights that pests and pathogens that usually suffer die-off during cold periods may become more pervasive due to warming winters. Increased humidity raises the risk of potato blight, something we are all too familiar with. Ireland is simultaneously unequipped for irrigation and flooding. Warming is expected to increase the growing season for some crops, but this benefit may be offset by increases in rainfall and drought frequency.
A stable food supply in a changing climate? Let’s hope we’re not taking it for granted.