With a general election looming, Beth Clifford examines if the current government has a chance of sustaining their grasp of power.
Taoiseach Simon Harris has stated that the general election will be held on 29 November. Initially, the general election was predicted to be in March of next year, however, with the recent announcement of Budget 2025, as well as the success of the establishment parties in the local and European elections, the coalition leaders are feeling confident in securing another term in government.
The latest polling figures by Politico show that support for both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have steadily increased in the past year, while support for the Green Party has consistently remained low. This lies in contrast to the biggest opposition party Sinn Féin, who have seen their approval ratings almost halved.
Fine Gael is currently polling at 25%, a 5% increase on this time last year. Fianna Fáil is at 20%, up 3% since last year. The Green Party has remained at a low level of 4% over the past 12 months. For Sinn Féin on the other hand, they lie at 18%, compared to 31% at the end of last year.
Looking at these polls, it seems that success at the next general election is likely for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
When questioned about these poll results, Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman stated that he was concerned. The Green Party will need to make serious headway if they wish to retain their position in the Oireachtas.
Sinn Féin also have a lot of work to do if they want to achieve the same heights as they did in the previous general election in 2020. Sinn Féin won 24.5% of first preference votes in the last election, a landslide victory for the party.
Their popularity resulted from their ability to mobilise a large portion of the electorate through highlighting ineffective housing and public infrastructure policies taken on by the previous Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil government.
Despite holding a stable stream of popularity over the past four years, in recent months Sinn Féin’s support has taken a tough blow. Their weak response to the ongoing genocide in Gaza, and perceived backsliding on issues of immigration, has caused a portion of their left-wing supporters to feel disappointed and ignored. Controversy has also engulfed this party with their handling of safeguarding issues in relation to four of their former members.
Other left opposition parties like the Social Democrats are polling at 6%, the Labour Party 4%, and People Before Profit 2%. While these poll numbers are not a guarantee for the results of the election, it seems as though a left wing party on its own will not be capable of bringing an end to the 100 year reign of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
Feeling demotivated from such data, the left in Ireland could take inspiration from France’s new left coalition government, Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP).
If Irish left-wing candidates and parties are to learn anything from the French general election, it is that strategy and alliance is essential to block the right from entering power.
Many of the issues that voters felt compelled to try change by heading to the polls in the previous Dáil election are ever more present today. Most notably, statistics from the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage (DHLGH) show homelessness has increased 36% since Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party formed their government in 2020.
A left alliance could focus on these concerns and motivate Irish voters once again. If the Irish left are not quick to organise, a governance under Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is imminent, and therefore it is unlikely Ireland will see a substantial change to many policy decisions.